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Growth headaches

In breve

While global markets grew nervous about reaccelerating US inflation prints earlier in the year, we had flagged that – despite a bumpier last mile to target – the disinflation trend was intact. The latest US inflation prints corroborate this view, with the 3-month core CPI more than halving from 4.5% in March to 2.1% in June.

Highlights:

  • Reassuring CPI data have helped to dispel inflation worries that had resurfaced at the start of the year. Growth indicators, however, have disappointed recently – thus far mostly in surveys rather than hard data. Policy makers will broaden their focus, paying more attention to growth concerns in their inflation fight.
  • Markets have been quick in rebuilding rate cut expectations. These tailwinds for risk assets are increasingly overshadowed, however, by the questions about economic and earnings prospects and rising political worries (French and US politics, tensions in the Mid-East). 
  • We continue to concentrate our tactical overweights in the safer buckets of risk assets, notably IG Credit at the expense of Cash and short-dated Core Bonds. We keep our overweights in Equities and HY Credit prudent and stick to our moderate long duration stance across Fixed Income classes.

 

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Market Perspectives 08_2024
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