Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
In 2018 stock markets have on average declined, yielding negative total returns (TR, -8.2% for the MSCI World) and missing our expectations for a rebound in Q4 2018.Read Now
Since its access to the WTO in late 2001, China has seen a stellar rise of its economy, managing to raise its nominal GDP eight-fold and to become the largest export economy in the world.Read Now
The widely expected increase in rates was accompanied by a reduction to two of the number of rate hikes deemed appropriate for 2019. A final increase should follow in 2020. The expected terminal rate decreased to 3.1%.Read Now
As the tide of easy monetary policy slowly goes out, global markets face another challenging year. Yet 2019 will be very different from 2018, as the US economy is set to fall off its pedestal; the Fed will pause this summer, if not before. The great regional divergence of 2018 will thus end, and with it the impressive USD rally. This should bring selective relief to Emerging Markets, assuming the world economic landing continues to be soft.Read Now
In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, shares key market views for the coming year. Find out more!Watch now
At today’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB decided to terminate QE at the end of December while leaving the refi rate at zero and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The statement that key rates will not be altered at least through summer 2019 was maintained.Read Now
We expect the Fed to deliver at most four more hikes. The one at the December 19 meeting will likely be followed by two rises in the first half of next year; the last one will depend on the state of the US economy at the end of 2019.Read Now