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Macro & Market Research

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

 

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Macro View Video - March 2020


2020: Viral


 
In March 2020, the thought on everyone's mind is the spread of the Coronavirus: no one can predict the pace and duration of the contagion precisely. What may be the economic impact, in the short term and for the long run? What measures can and will be taken globally?

Market Perspectives and Investment View

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Global view Sudden stop permenent scars

06/04/2020

The damage to society, the economy and financial markets has been con-siderable. European equities are entering Q2 down 25-30% year-to-date, depend-ing on the index we look at, and following a drawdown of ~35% in the month to 18 March.

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Viral uncertainties

28/02/2020

With Covid-19 going global, we scale back the previously cautious pro-risk bias in our portfolios.

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(Vir)alteration of investor optimism

31/01/2020

Just as the trade truce provided broad-based relief, the Coronavirus is unsettling global markets.

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Core Matters

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International health insurance demand and future evolution

28/01/2020

The economics of health is different, and complicated by adverse selection and moral hazard issues.

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Germany’s fading shine

15/01/2020

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Where has inflation gone?

19/12/2019

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Focal Points

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Spain: Headwinds ahead but Bonos to stay solid

20/02/2020

In Spain, the new, fragile left-wing minority coalition plans to unwind key elements of the 2012 labor market reforms and intends to increase income and corporate taxes.

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The Corona virus: What to expect?

30/01/2020

The outbreak of the Corona virus (2019-nCoV) is spreading fears around the globe and rattling financial markets.

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US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed

28/01/2020

Fears of a US recession have abated, but we still expect growth to ease from 2.2% to 1.6% in 2020.

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Market commentaries

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Covid-19 Facts & Figures

06/04/2020

Queen Elizabeth II addressed to the nation calling for unity. These types of emergency national addresses happened only a few times in history, one of them during World War Two.

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Slashing earnings estimates significantly down

05/04/2020

We significantly cut our estimates for the US and EA and are currently 27% and 28% below the IBES consensus for the corresponding markets.

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A test of character for Europe

03/04/2020

Down but not out. The contagion of the corona virus continues, but at a slower pace. In the first days of April the total number of recorded cases, now well over one million globally, was rising by about 8.5% a day, vs. 12% around 25 March. Social distancing measures are working: Italy has passed the peak, with new cases now well below 5000 a day, down from a top above 6000.

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Market Compass

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Market Compass April 2020

06/04/2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

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Market Compass March 2020

06/03/2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

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Market Compass February 2020

10/02/2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

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Macro view videos

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Market view video – 2020: Viral

13/03/2020

In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, takes a look at the impact of Coronavirus on the world economy and markets, possible policy actions and what might just be a silver lining. Find out more!

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2020 Outlook Video – Repression, introspection, election

17/12/2019

In this video Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, shares key market views for the coming year. Find out more!

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Market view video: THE NEGATIVE YIELD DISEASE IS SPREADING

09/09/2019

Watch this video and discover our experts view on financial markets.

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