MARKET RESEARCH HUB

MACRO VIEW VIDEO – 28 APRIL 2020

Macro & Market Research

Find here all the latest publications from our expert Macro & Market Research team:

 

THE MACRO & MARKET RESEARCH TEAM

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial markets.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Macro View Video - 28 April 2020


 
with Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management

Market Perspectives and Investment View

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Economic Hardship vs. Policy Deluge

29/05/2020

The Covid-19 induced temporary knock out of the euro area economy has been increasingly showing up in the data. In Q1 activity receded by 3.8% qoq with all economies reporting contracting output. Sharply falling industry orders (-13.2% mom) amid a turnaround of the unemployment rate (7.4%, from 7.3% before) in March imply that Q2 will be much worse. In April, the economy was in full lockdown and key sentiment indicators plummeted to unprecedented low levels. In May, sentiment advanced while remaining in territory clearly consistent with a very sharp recession.

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Limping out of the lockdown

30/04/2020

As the Covid-19 pandemic has triggered shutdowns around the world, the global economy is headed for its worst slump in post-war history. With severe containment measures extending into May, we now pencil in a contraction of global GDP by 3.5% this year.

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Sudden stop, permanent scars

06/04/2020

Lockdowns will continue until the number of new cases drop to a very low level. Even then, the return to ‘normality’ will be only progressive.

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Core Matters

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International health insurance demand and future evolution

28/01/2020

The economics of health is different, and complicated by adverse selection and moral hazard issues.

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Germany’s fading shine

15/01/2020

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Where has inflation gone?

19/12/2019

The protracted weakness of inflation during the past cyclical upswing caught central banks and investors by surprise.

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Focal Points

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State-aid framework under Covid: what impact on credit markets?

28/05/2020

Through the great financial crisis (GFC), taxpayers had to bail-out companies with creditors ending up largely unscathed, mostly in the financial sector.

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The deep economic fallout from global distancing

18/05/2020

The global spreading of the Corona virus is keeping the world in suspense. Global confirmed infections exceed 4.5m, the death toll has surpassed 300k. Apart from the human tragedy associated with each case, the global economic outlook has deteriorated severely.

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German CC ruling: How much pain for the ECB?

11/05/2020

More precisely, the CC had to decide on two related questions: First, does the ECB with the implementation of the PSPP exceed its competencies and, second, is there a case of state budget financing? On the first the CC ruled that the ECB stays within its limits, but on the second it assessed PSPP as “partly unlawful”.

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Market commentaries

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Covid-19 Facts & Figures

29/05/2020

According to the United Nations, up to 1.6 billion people may be unable to earn a living and suffer famine.

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The Emerging Paradox

24/05/2020

The easing of the lockdowns is proceeding slowly but smoothly so far. Or is it? The western world has not suffered another wave of Covid-19 contagion.

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China’s NPC continues measured approach to Covid-19 crisis

22/05/2020

Today, China’s National People's Congress (NPC) opened without announcing a GDP growth target for the first time since 1994.

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Market Compass

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Market Compass May 2020

07/05/2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

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LA BOUSSOLE DES MARCHES MAI 2020

07/05/2020

Rédigée par l’équipe de recherche macroéconomique Une équipe de 13 analystes, basés à Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan et Prague, réalise des analyses qualitatives et quantitatives, portant sur les problématiques macroéconomiques et financières.

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Market Compass April 2020

06/04/2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

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Macro view videos

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WEBINAR REPLAY - Credit market: the bridge over troubled water?

07/05/2020

In this webinar, our multi-boutique platform experts discussed whether - looking head - credit can act as the bridge over troubled water by analyzing the risks and opportunities that can be expected in the various segments.

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WEBINAR REPLAY - Down and under: what is happening to the oil industry market structure?

30/04/2020

Webinar with Paolo Scaroni, Deputy Chairman of Rothschild & Co, Chairman of Giuliani, Chairman of AC Milan and former CEO at Eni, and Anna Maria Reforgiato Recupero, Head of Strategic Investors Group at Generali Investments Partners

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Macro View Video: Update with Vincent Chaigneau

16/04/2020

New #Covid19 cases will soon plateau, as contagion slows. The better tone in financial market primarily reflects positive news about the slower pace of viral contagion. Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, explains the policy efforts to face the emergency.

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