Market Compass December 2023

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.


  • Progress on disinflation and easing fears of escalation in the Middle East have fueled a broad-based market rally in November.
  • Amid the siren calls from lower yields, however, mind the still difficult growth outlook. We expect the lagged fallout from the Fed’s tightening to send the US into stagnation, while Europe will recover only sluggishly from a moderate recession.
  • The decline in yields still has legs, albeit more moderately so. With hopes of early Fed and ECB pivot already advanced, central banks will need to keep financial conditions from easing too fast.
  • Risk assets discount quite some optimism and cyclical concerns will overshadow more strongly the disinflationary relief. We retain some caution on Equities and High Yield (HY) Credit near term, favouring Investment Grade (IG) Credit and longer-dated Govies. Amid a somewhat brighter outlook for risk assets, we trim the size of active positions.


Download the full publication below

Market Compass December 2023

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. as the holding company of the main asset management companies of the Generali Group having, directly or indirectly, the majority shareholding in the companies listed below (hereinafter jointly, “Generali Investments”). This website may contain information related to the activity of the following companies: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (including Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* and among its subsidiaries Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - including Global Evolution USA, LLC and Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC as well as Generali Investments CEE. *Includes Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc., Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collectively, “Conning”).