Inflation woes and a dovish Fed drive long rates up
- Markets price the first US rate hike as early as in H1 2023, mainly reflecting a higher risk premium on inflation fears. These
worries are unlikely to ease in the short term given the volatility in inflation and employment.
- In contrast, our estimate of the new Fed reaction function predicts a rate lift-off no earlier than in Q4 2023. Markets seem
to have mixed views on the Fed’s stated higher tolerance towards inflation, requiring the Fed to improve its communication.
- Expectations of an early liftoff strongly affect the short end of the curve. The currently priced strong increase in short-dated
yields appears overdone. While not immune to the economic recovery and slowly approaching key rate hikes, short-dated
US Treasuries are seen to hold up relatively well.
- In contrast, long-dated US Treasuries remain vulnerable to a rise in real yields and a delayed lift-off. The USD yield curve
is then set to steepen further.