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Climbing a wall of worries? It is very slippery

En bref

Just as central banks keep rushing to tame the inflation beast, the energy crisis and political uncertainties are complicating their tasks even further. Yet both Equities and Bonds climbed a wall of worries in July.

Highlights:

  • Central banks (CBs) are still showing their teeth, frontloading rate hikes and asserting their  inflation credentials. But the Fed and ECB’s distancing from forward guidance is likely coinciding with a pivot towards less aggressive tightening.
  • Indeed, risks to growth are rising steadily. A moderate H2 recession is now our base case for the euro area. This will strengthen the case for a more calibrated monetary tightening after summer.
  • Also expect the Fed to turn less hawkish by then. Investors may be front running this already, hence the recent bounce in equities. Yet we keep a prudent risk stance for now, in a fast deteriorating economic environment: underweight Equities, HY Credit and non-core debt (TPI unconvincing). We see value in safer Credit segments and USD.
     

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Climbing a wall of worries? It is very slippery
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