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Vaccines to trigger uneven recoveries from Covid

En bref

The Covid-19 pandemic keeps its tight grip on economic activity. After the arrival of vaccines in late 2020 had sparked increased optimism about the speed of the recovery, latest news has somewhat soured the mood.

Highlights:

  • Global activity is set to rebound this year amid progressing vaccination and a reopening of economies in spring/summer. Yet with the arrival of more aggressive Covid-19 mutations, bottlenecks in the vaccine supply and the health systems under stress, lockdowns especially in Europe may last longer than previously assumed, postponing the recovery.
  • Especially the euro area is hit hard. Amid additional and prolonged restrictions and a delayed achievement of herd immunity, we lower our base 2021 GDP growth projection from 5.3% to 4.0%.
  • In contrast, speedier vaccination and the prospects of another substantial fiscal stimulus make us raise our growth expectations for the US from 5.5% to 6.1%. We reaffirm our 7.8% growth forecast for China.
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative, but barring a severe deterioration of the pandemic, we do not expect another material easing.

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FOCAL POINT ǀ VACCINES TO TRIGGER UNEVEN RECOVERIES FROM COVID
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