Recherche Économie
et Marchés

Recherche Macroéconomique et de Marchés

Vous trouverez dans cette rubrique les dernières publications de notre équipe de Recherche Macroéconomique et de Marchés.

L’EQUIPE DE RECHERCHE MACROECONOMIQUE ET DE MARCHES

Une équipe composée de 13 analystes basée à Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan et Prague réalise des analyses qualitatives et quantitatives sur la macroéconomie et les marchés financiers.
L’équipe traduit les vues macroéconomiques et quantitatives en idées d’investissement qui alimentent le processus d’investissement.

Perspectives de Marchés et d’Investissement

INVESTMENT VIEW Q4: THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Given the surge in government and corporate debt, policy will inevitably focus on making this load sustainable: financial repression, spearheaded by central banks, is set to reach a whole new level. − Investors will need to navigate many icebergs this autumn: Covid uncertainties, a hard (or semi-hard) Brexit, the US elections and the risk associated to the crowding of positions (Growth stocks). So our positive risk bias is cautious.
COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
After a buoyant August for risk assets, the rally is likely to flatten out. Rising new infections into the autumn, a leveling recovery pace and diverse political risks (US politics, Brexit, geopolitics) will keep a lid on risk sentiment.
GLOBAL VIEW – ENJOY SUMMER WHILE IT LASTS
As lockdowns have been lifted and global activity rebounded from the Q2 nadir, hopes of a strong recovery have helped risk assets advance further over July.
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Core Matters & WHITE PAPERS

LIFE AFTER COVID: 5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS
The Global Covid Crisis (GCC) has had a profound impact not just on our lives but also the economy and financial markets. Even after those life-changing developments and sharp market movements, our 5-year total return forecasts have not changed dramatically. We reiterate the view that future returns will fall very short of historical ones, particularly those of the past ten years.
THE ASCENT OF QUASIGOVERNMENT BONDS
The market value of euro-denominated quasi-government bonds has multiplied in recent years. Amid the rescue measures of governments in response to Covid-19, the importance of this asset class is set to increase further.
La vie après le Covid : le point de vue LDI
Dans ce document, nos équipes de recherche et d'investissement analysent "La vie après Covid", couvrant notre point de vue sur la reprise économique, les nouveaux comportements à la suite de la pandémie et les opportunités uniques pour une intégration fiscale et politique européenne.
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Focal Points

EQUITIES: POSITIVE RETURNS AHEAD DESPITE CHALLENGES
Equity markets have rebounded from a historical slump in Q1, with US markets even posting fresh record highs. We acknowledge the risen risks of setbacks amid loftier valuations, elevated political risks (US elections, Brexit and US-China frictions) and Covid uncertainties into autumn.
TAKING MONETARY POLICY TO YET ANOTHER LEVEL
The presentation of the new Long Term goal and strategy on August 27 marks a deep shift in the Fed’s monetary policy. The new way inflation and the labour market will affect monetary policy will result in a marked downward bias to interest rates.
BREXIT: PAINFUL NEGOTIATIONS WITH A MODEST RESULT AHEAD
In a recent high level meeting, PM Johnson notified the EU that the UK will not ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period. In accordance, he opted to forego the end of June deadline. This decision does not come as a surprise.
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Commentaires de Marchés

COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.
INCORPORATING QUANT SIGNALS INTO EU EQUITY SECTOR/STYLE STRATEGY: MAINTAIN A TILT TO CYCLICALS AND VALUE
We present an update of our proprietary equity valuation tool, based on quant models. It provides indications of over- or undervaluation for different sectors and styles of European equities, which is further enriched by our qualitative analysis. Currently, among European equity sectors, financials, energy, telecoms, and autos look undervalued while Pharma, utilities and software appear overvalued.
CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
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La boussole des marchés

LA BOUSSOLE DES MARCHES OCTOBRE 2020
Rédigée par l’équipe de recherche macroéconomique Une équipe de 13 analystes, basés à Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan et Prague, réalise des analyses qualitatives et quantitatives, portant sur les problématiques macroéconomiques et financières.
LA BOUSSOLE DES MARCHES SEPTEMBRE 2020
Rédigée par l’équipe de recherche macroéconomique Une équipe de 13 analystes, basés à Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan et Prague, réalise des analyses qualitatives et quantitatives, portant sur les problématiques macroéconomiques et financières.
LA BOUSSOLE DES MARCHES JUILLET 2020
Rédigée par l’équipe de recherche macroéconomique Une équipe de 13 analystes, basés à Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan et Prague, réalise des analyses qualitatives et quantitatives, portant sur les problématiques macroéconomiques et financières.
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Vidéos Macroéconomiques ET PODCASTS

THE SPOTLIGHT - GENERALI INVESTMENTS PODCAST
Q4 INVESTMENTS VIEW | THE NEW AGE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
US Election 2020
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on the executive summary of the latest Investment View Report released by our Research team.
PODCAST:
MARKET PERSPECTIVES - COVID PARALYSIS RECEDES AS POLITICAL RISK RISES
Listen to the dedicated Podcast by Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, on our view on the economic recovery, new behaviours in the aftermath of the pandemic and the unique opportunities for a European fiscal and political integration.
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