Rising house prices, mostly a concern for US inflation

En bref

The extraordinary monetary stimulus implemented after the Covid-19 outbreak brought about a strong support to asset prices via abundant liquidity and tumbling real rates.


  • Record low interest rates and central banks’ support to lending are pushing house prices up in most OECD countries. By
    some metrics, in some countries residential real estate overvaluation is at its highest level in 25 years. The reshuffle in
    demand following changing working patterns may add further pressure.
  • US valuations are high by historical standards, but below the mid-2000 levels. Tighter lending discipline and stronger
    households balance sheet reduce the risks to financial stability. Yet soaring prices impact the important shelter component
    of CPI, which may dampen the inflation normalization expected for 2022, increasing pressures on the Fed to tighten.
  • In its latest Stability Review the ECB deemed the housing market-related risks as “elevated”. In its new strategy the ECB
    will also directly focus on house price developments by augmenting its inflation measure accordingly.
  • Taylor-rule based calculations show that if house prices were fully included, the policy rate would currently be 0.3 pp higher.

Read the full publication below

COVID-19 UPDATE: Facts & Figures 19/08/2021
Labour market key for BoE’s first rate hike
COVID-19 UPDATE: Facts & Figures 12/08/2021
Focal Point ǀ Rising house prices, mostly a concern for US inflation
Core Matters ǀ Relative asset performance: still a chance for equities
GIAM ǀ Information on the integration of sustainability in Remuneration

© Generali Investments, tous droits réservés. Ce site internet est publié par Generali Investments et est considéré comme une communication marketing et une promotion financière liée aux produits et services des sociétés du groupe Generali suivantes : Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. et Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. (ci-après dénommées ensemble Generali Investments). En outre, le site peut contenir des communications de marketing et de promotion financière de produits et services de sociétés faisant partie de la plate-forme Multi-Boutiques coordonnée par Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, et en particulier de Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC, Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments, Sosteneo Infrastructure Partners SGR, Axis Retail Partners S.p.A. et Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio.