Cookie settings
Picture
Contactez-nous
Picture

ECB defends transitory inflation view, no near-term hike ahead

En bref

At today’s monetary policy meeting the Governing Council members were confronted with increased skepticism about the transitory nature of the current inflation spike and hence concerns that the ECB could fall behind the curve. With headline inflation likely coming close to 4 % yoy in October, further inflation pressure in the pipeline and inflation expectations exceeding the 2% threshold from the 1-year up to the 30-year bucket, markets have started to question the ECB’s ability to keep inflation contained.

Highlights:

  • At today’s meeting, as expected the Governing Council (GC) did not change its policy stance. The key message is that the ECB continues to stick to its view of only transitorily higher inflation. But it acknowledges that its abating is taking longer than previously thought.
  • President Lagarde made very clear that markets have gone too far with rate hike expectations. The conditions for higher policy rates were not met at present and “certainly not in the near future”.
  • Markets slightly increased their rate bets defying Lagarde’s comments on market pricing. The ECB’s patience on inflation stands in clear contrast to other central banks.
  • Looking ahead, the December 16 meeting will be pivotal. With new macro projections PEPP purchases for Q1/2022 will need to be recalibrated and the GC will have to decide about the post-PEPP QE. We look for € 40 bn/month (broadly in line with consensus) but see the risk that a deteriorating growth-inflation mix triggers a less benign stance.

Download the full publication below

ECB defends transitory inflation view, no near-term hike ahead
Notre Offre
Investissement Responsable
Actualités
Nous Connaître
Contactez-Nous
Picture
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, tous droits réservés. Ce site web est géré par Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. en tant que société holding des sociétés de gestion d'actifs du Groupe Generali ayant, directement ou indirectement, une participation majoritaire dans les sociétés énumérées ci-dessous (ci-après dénommées conjointement "Generali Investments"). Ce site web peut contenir des informations relatives à l'activité des sociétés suivantes : Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (y compris Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* et ses filiales Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - y compris Global Evolution USA, LLC et Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC ainsi que Generali Investments CEE. *Englobe Conning, Inc, Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc, Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc (désignés comme "Conning").

Informations juridiques
Politique en Matière de Cookies
Politique de Confidentialité
Conditions Générales
Droits d’Auteur
Gender equality index
Glossaire