Chasing the bandwagon?

In Short

With supply chain bottlenecks easing, will central banks soon pivot towards an accommodative stance? Unfortunately not, says Dr. Thomas Hempell, Head of Macro & Market Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management.

Highlights:

  • Easing US inflation and receding energy prices have extended  a synchronized rally of bonds and equities  that investors may  be tempted to chase.
  • We see rising appeal in US bond markets as UST yields are likely past peak. Similarly, a decent carry renders  high  quality EA  Credit attractive,  with risks  of  stronger yield/spread increases muted.
  • Yet  we are  prudent  on riskier buckets, including Equities and HY Credit. They are not priced for a recession, the strong determination of central banks to rein inflation in, nor China’s undecisive and Covid-frustrated effort to support growth.
     

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Market Perspectives ǀ Chasing the bandwagon?

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