China’s Q1 GDP growth: Strong year-on-year growth amid weak momentum

Highlights:

• China’s Q1 GDP growth accelerated to 18.3% yoy while the growth momentum was the lowest on record (except Q1 2020).
• We expect it to normalise in Q2 while yoy growth could cool into a range of 7% to 8% yoy.
• These fluctuations are embedded into a generally less supportive monetary and fiscal stance.
• The PBoC already slowed money expansion. We expect the bulk of withdrawal of fiscal support only after the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party on July 1.

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