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ECB still in a good place, stronger euro no need to act (yet)

In Short

ECB kept key rate unchanged today: Quite unspectacularly, at today’s meeting the GC left its key rate, the deposit rate, at 2.00% for the fourth consecutive time. It continues with fully non-reinvestments of its APP and PEPP purchases. A strong euro does not cause too much concern (yet). The latest dataflow fuelled speculation that the ECB might be pushed out of its policy hibernation. Especially the euro’s rise at the outset of the year was in focus, nurtured by concerns about imported disinflation and a further hit to European external competitiveness.

Highlights

  • At today’s meeting the ECB Governing Council (GC) unanimously decided to again keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0%. 
  • FX developments were discussed, with the stronger euro being seen as a burden the external environment and a downside risk to inflation. But in the Q&A President Lagarde played down latest developments finding that there has been no materially new appreciation in 2026 and that past appreciation was already in the baseline scenario. 
  • Analogously, she sounded relaxed on the latest inflation data that were below the ECB’s expectation and constructive on growth. 
  • All in all, President Lagarde reconfirmed that the ECB was “in a good place” while stating that the sentiment in the GC was broadly balanced. 
  • We stick to our view that the ECB maintains its key rate at 2.0% but see the risk tilted towards a cut, especially if the euro were to rise significantly further

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ECB still in a good place, stronger euro no need to act (yet)
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