Focal Point "Risks to inflation and growth from US tariffs"
In Short
A new, harsher round of tariffs poses the biggest risk to the global economy from the new Trump administration. Soon after his inauguration President Trump reiterated the threat of tariffs, but so far, little is known about the shape and timing of these policies. However, legal, and political constraints, the pattern of US imports and the past Trump administration's transactional approach make bilateral tariffs, imposed after some negotiation with the main trading partner, more likely than global restrictions.
