French elections: a harbinger of new stress?

In breve

In the first round of the French Presidential elections on April 10, an accident or a potentially disruptive outcome for markets was avoided. Incumbent President Macron received 27.8% of the votes, clearly beating second-placed far-right candidate Le Pen (23.1%).
Focal Point

Highlights:

  • In the first round of the French Presidential election liberal incumbent Macron (27.8%) received the highest share of votes. As expected, he faces far-right candidate Le Pen in the 2nd round to be held on April 24.
  • According to polls Macron will likely remain President, but by a much tighter lead than in 2017. The situation is fluid and there is no unitary support from other succumbed candidates.
  • If Le Pen were to become President the reform process would largely stall (e.g. pension age), European projects be hampered and a clash with the EC likely mount. Even if Macron wins, there remains the risk that he loses parliamentary majority in the June 12/19 general elections – so that uncertainty will not be fully removed.
  • Euro area financial markets will remain volatile into the run-off election. A second term for Macron would calm markets. On the contrary, the election of Le Pen would lead to a knee-jerk reaction and a lingering high risk premium that would manifest in full should the ‘extreme’ parties also do well in the forthcoming parliamentary elections.

Read the full publication below

Focal Point I French elections: a harbinger of new stress?
Picture

© Generali Investments, tutti i diritti riservati. Questo sito web è fornito da Generali Investments ed è considerato come una comunicazione di marketing e una promozione finanziaria riferita ai prodotti e servizi delle società elencate di seguito, appartenenti al Gruppo Generali: Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. e Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. (nel prosieguo, congiuntamente indicate come Generali Investments). Inoltre, il sito può contenere comunicazioni di marketing e promozioni finanziarie di prodotti e servizi di società appartenenti alla piattaforma coordinata da Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, nello specifico di Generali Global Infrastructure, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC., Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments e Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio