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Market Compass March 2025

In breve

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

*Please note that this release precedes the Fed’s meeting on 19 March 2025 and does not reflect its impact.

  • President Trump’s hawkish trade attitude may be testing our assumption that he will want to avoid large negative supply shocks. Political uncertainties in Germany are receding and a substantial fiscal boost to defence is in the offing.
  • US-Russian peace talks on Ukraine and the erosion of US security guarantees for Europe are amplifying the global tectonic shifts from US tariff threats.
  • US surveys are sending warning signals on growth and disinflation amid US policy turmoil. The risk of a wider trade war keeps a lid on sentiment.
  • We maintain a prudent risk exposure, via Investment Grade (IG) Credit and a mimimal overweight in Equities. We prefer US duration medium term but see two-sided risks for US yields short term. Higher fiscal spending in Europe has led us to trim the long duration in Euro fixed income.

 

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Market Compass March 2025
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