Picture
Contatti
Picture

No surrender - The Russian invasion does not stop the ECB’s will to tighten policy

In breve

Hawkish policy decisions: As expected, at today’s meeting the Governing Council (GC) announced an end of the PEPP but at the same time made clear that policy normalisation will not be derailed.

Highlights:

  • At today’s meeting the Governing Council (GC) surprised again on the hawkish side. The unwinding of QE will be accelerated, and asset purchases will end by June unless the inflation outlook deteriorates. Pandemic-related asset purchases will end by March, as expected.
  • But at the same time the GC emphasized uncertainty and data-dependency regarding future policy action. It ba- sically eliminated the time-link between the end of net asset purchases and the first rate hike while maintaining the sequence of policy steps.
  • The updated staff projections back the case for policy normalization. Unless downside risks to the medium infla- tion outlook materialise, we see the way paved for the start of the normalization cycle in 2022. The ECB’s propri- etary baseline case seeing growth at 3.7% in 2022 would be consistent with two rate hikes this year.
  • We are more cautious regarding the fallout from the war and see the euro area growing by only 2.2% in 2022, well below the ECB’s expectation. We therefore continue to see only one hike in December but acknowledge that the risk shifted again towards two hikes this year.

Read the full publication below

No surrender - The Russian invasion does not stop the ECB’s will to tighten policy
Competenze
Investimenti Responsabili
Insights
Chi Siamo
Contatti
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, tutti i diritti riservati. Questo sito web è fornito da Generali Investments ed è considerato come una comunicazione di marketing e una promozione finanziaria riferita ai prodotti e servizi delle società elencate di seguito, appartenenti al Gruppo Generali: Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Insurance Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. e Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. (nel prosieguo, congiuntamente indicate come Generali Investments). Inoltre, il sito può contenere comunicazioni di marketing e promozioni finanziarie di prodotti e servizi di società appartenenti alla piattaforma coordinata da Generali Investments Partners S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, nello specifico di Generali Global Infrastructure, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC., Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments e Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio

Note Legali
Informativa Sui Cookie
Informativa Sulla Privacy
Termini e Condizioni
Copyright
Glossario