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US job creation gathers speed, bottlenecks increase wage pressures

In breve

Employment grew strongly in June, but the data continue to highlight the bottlenecks which can add to wage pressures. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 850k after having expanded by 570k on average in the previous two months.

Highlights:

  • In June, employment growth was above expectations (850k versus 700k) and accelerated from the previous two months. Government employment (+188k) played a big role and sectors whose activity is reopening continued to perform very well. But input shortages curtailed employment growth in automotive.
  • Yet, the participation rate remained unchanged at a very low reading of 61.6%. Labour shortages are affecting hiring intentions: the employment component of the ISM manufacturing index came in below 50, showing that smooth job growth cannot be taken for granted.
  • Hourly wage growth rose to 3.6% yoy, with leisure posting a +10% increase. Upside pressures on inflation coming from wages may lead the Fed to a quicker withdrawal of monetary stimulus, implying the risk of a first rate hike earlier than in mid-2023. However, doves may insist to keep accommodation with clear evidence that the constraints pushing up inflation are at the same time hampering activity and employment growth.

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US job creation gathers speed, bottlenecks increase wage pressures
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