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Walking the talk, for now

In breve

Global risk assets are still fighting a triple blow from the Ukraine war, central banks’ rushed tightening and Chinese lockdowns. US equities saw their longest series of weekly declines since 2001 through mid-May, before rebounding on Chinese stimulus hopes and robust US consumption data towards the end of the month.

Highlights:

  • Left far behind the curve by surging prices, major central banks are playing catch-up. This reins in inflation worries, but fuels growth concerns.
  • A recession is not (yet) around the corner. But worries about weaker economic and earnings growth keep risky assets on the defensive.
  • Central banks for now will walk their hawkish talk. But the upside for yields is limited from here, as self- correcting mechanisms (risks to growth and financial stability) are kicking in.
  • The Fed should turn less hawkish by late summer, which may then revive the appetite for risk.
     

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Market Perspectives I Walking the talk, for now
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