Cookie Settings
Picture
Contatti
Picture

German election: What is at stake?

In breve

On September 26th the Germans will elect a new government. Following a decade of crisis and the emergence of Covid, the next government will have to address key issues. Near term the pandemic will still stay in the focus.

Highlights:

  • The September 26 German election will not only end the Merkel-era but also Germany’s tradition of two-party coalitions. Socialists (SPD) currently lead against the conservatives (CDU/CSU) in a neck-on-neck race.
  • There is a wide range of possible coalitions with a centre-left (SPD, greens, liberals) or centre-right (CDU/CSU, greens, liberals) most likely to us. Polls suggest that Scholz (SPD) is more likely to become the next Chancellor than Laschet (CDU/CSU). Following cumbersome coalition negotiations a new government may still take office before year-end.
  • Our base case is a centre government with either the socialists or conservatives leading a coalition with the greens and liberals. All parties want to increase public investment. The greens are most ambitious suggesting a € 500 bn investment plan and we think that they can push through parts of this idea in coalition negotiations.
  • The left parties are open to a reform of the national and European fiscal rules. The greens and SPD are open to reform European fiscal rules in stark contrast to conservatives and liberals, which makes bolder changes quite unlikely also under a new German government.
  • Unless the elections result in an outright left coalition, financial market effects are likely to be muted.

 Download the full report

German election: What is at stake?
Competenze
Investimenti Responsabili
Insights
Chi Siamo
Contatti
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, tutti i diritti riservati. Questo sito web è fornito da Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. in qualità di holding delle principali società di gestione del risparmio del Gruppo Generali che detengono, direttamente o indirettamente, la maggioranza delle partecipazioni nelle società sotto elencate (di seguito, congiuntamente, "Generali Investments"). Questo sito web può contenere informazioni relative all'attività delle seguenti società: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (inclusa Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* e tra le sue controllate Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - incluse Global Evolution USA, LLC e Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC e Generali Investments CEE. *Comprende Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc. e Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collettivamente, "Conning").

Note Legali
Informativa Sui Cookie
Informativa Sulla Privacy
Termini e Condizioni
Copyright
Glossario