Cookie Settings
Picture
Contatti
Picture

Whatever it takes, in reverse

In breve

Summer of discontent. 2022 was always going to be a difficult year. Our 2022 Outlook, “Bye-bye beta” presented a difficult case for asset performance this year. Our Q2 Investment Views, “Mission impossible”, laid out the daunting task of monetary policy makers: crushing inflation without causing a hard landing.

Highlights:

  • Central banks are on a mission to fight the inflation beast – whatever it takes, even a recession. The financial mood will remain gloomy this summer as economic data deteriorates while central banks walk their hawkish talk. 
  • We expect the Fed to turn less aggressive this autumn, as it faces a deterioration of the economy and, eventually, employment data. Inflation headlines will also cool off by then, and more so in Q1. 
  • But for now, central banks (CBs) are left lamenting about second-round effects. The ‘wishful-thinking’ approach to policy (inconsistent ECB and Fed forecasts) have also delayed the market reckoning about the economic pain. We also question the ECB’s political and legal capacity to reallocate its huge balance sheet as it tries to lean against fragmentation.
  • We stick to our guns, with an underweight in equities and an overweight in high-quality credit. Increase cash over summer, whilst reducing the shorts in both core Govies and duration.
     

Read the full publication below

Investment View I Whatever it takes, in reverse
Competenze
Investimenti Responsabili
Insights
Chi Siamo
Contatti
Picture
Picture

© Generali Investments, tutti i diritti riservati. Questo sito web è fornito da Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. in qualità di holding delle principali società di gestione del risparmio del Gruppo Generali che detengono, direttamente o indirettamente, la maggioranza delle partecipazioni nelle società sotto elencate (di seguito, congiuntamente, "Generali Investments"). Questo sito web può contenere informazioni relative all'attività delle seguenti società: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (inclusa Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S. p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* e tra le sue controllate Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - incluse Global Evolution USA, LLC e Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC e Generali Investments CEE. *Comprende Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc. e Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collettivamente, "Conning").

Note Legali
Informativa Sui Cookie
Informativa Sulla Privacy
Termini e Condizioni
Copyright
Glossario