Market Compass June 2023

In Short

A team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Hopes of a last-minute deal on the US debt ceiling, resilient US activity and an AI boost to IT chip producers have helped risk assets to digest rising yields well in May.
  • But mind the various gaps that are emerging. Pent-up demand in services is deeply overshadowed by mounting trouble in manufacturing.
  • Equity and High Yield (HY) Credit resilience contrasts strong signs of a looming US recession, markedly higher real yields and evidence of a credit crunch.
  • We stick to a prudent tactical tilt in our portfolios, moderately underweighting Equities and HY. We favour the carry from Investment Grade (IG) Credit and Government Bonds while avoiding unhedged USD exposure.

 

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Market Compass June 2023

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