The new Chinese paradigm between contradictions, transformations and opportunities
In Short
When the first six months of 2025 are behind us it is the time for mid-year balance sheet, including those on China. In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% compared to the same period in 2024, which is in line with the government's target. At the same time, the deficit settled at 4% of GDP, the highest value in thirty years, which seems to confirm the government's willingness to support the economic cycle with decisive industrial policies.
Beijing also announced a record trade surplus of around USD 586 billion, with exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year in June and exceeding analysts' estimates. Despite tariffs currently standing at 55%, China's surplus with the US increased to USD 114.77 billion in the first half of the year, up from USD 98.94 billion a year earlier, once again surpassing market expectations. This is a clear indicator of the resilience of Chinese companies: 'decoupling' is a long-term process and, in many technology sectors, global dependence on China remains structural.
In a nutshell, this is China's mid-year balance sheet. However, to understand the country's true trajectory and the extent of the ongoing evolution, it is crucial to look beyond the figures. An it is behind the numbers that a new Chinese paradigm emerges.
