US: a not-so-soft landing, no rate cuts before Q2 2024

In breve

After a strong Q2, preliminary data for the summer point to still healthy demand; increasing hopes of a soft landing are supporting risk assets. We acknowledge that the latest data reduce the risk of a crash and therefore revise up our growth forecast.

Highlights:

  • After a strong H1, activity in Q3 looks healthier than expected thanks to increasing real income, low savings and fiscal support. Yet the economy will slow down and flirt with recession: growth will turn slightly negative in Q1 2024, followed by subpar growth thereafter. Risks are balanced: demand may prove more resilient than expected to high rates, but the full impact of tighter finance has yet to be felt and fiscal support will fade.
  • How soft the landing will critically depend on the labour market. So far easing labour demand has coexisted with record low unemployment (3.6% in July), as employers prefer to hoard workers, but this may be tested in a case of more severe downturn.
  • Employment cost growth is cooling, but at 4.5% yoy remains some 1pp higher than the level consistent with 2% inflation. Production and import prices are decelerating too, but robust demand will slow disinflation. Indeed, we see core PCE inflation still above 3% by Q1 2024.
  • The July’s rate hike was followed by overall hawkish communication. We think that the Fed is done hiking, but see no cuts before June next year. Only very negative inflation surprises might trigger another rise in November. Quantitative tightening should end by mid-2024.

     

Download the full publication below

US: a not-so-soft landing, no rate cuts before Q2 2024
Picture

© Generali Investments, tutti i diritti riservati. Questo sito web è fornito da Generali Investments ed è considerato come una comunicazione di marketing e una promozione finanziaria riferita ai prodotti e servizi delle società elencate di seguito, appartenenti al Gruppo Generali: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio & Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. (nel prosieguo, congiuntamente indicate come Generali Investments). Inoltre, il sito può contenere comunicazioni di marketing e promozioni finanziarie di prodotti e servizi di società appartenenti alla piattaforma coordinata da Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, nello specifico di Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC., Plenisfer Investments SGR, Lumyna Investments, Sosteneo Infrastructure Partners SGR e Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di Gestione del Risparmio