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A deepening policy dilemma

In breve

The summer has revealed an increasingly divergent and challenging global macro backdrop. Resilient US data is raising concerns about high US rates for longer. China is descending into deeper property and growth worries. And the euro area faces a deepening policy dilemma, as stubborn inflation contrasts with rising recession risks.

Highlights:

 

  • Markets’ more cautious stance on risk assets is set to continue as the support from resilient US growth is increasingly offset by the need for high rates for longer.
  • We still expect more economic pain to erode corporate margins, especially in the euro area, while elevated equity valuations look vulnerable to a correction.
  • We keep a prudent underweight in Equity and HY while overweighting safer IG Credit and EM debt mainly due to an attractive carry.
  • A continued growth slowdown and a higher probability that the Fed and ECB will skip rate hikes in September point to slightly lower yields. Yet a continued hawkish bias in central banks’ forward communication will likely prevent a stronger bond rally.

     

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A deepening policy dilemma
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